An Old - New Technology (12/19/07)
There is an old technology called windmills. But the new technology is large wind mills for electrical generation.
Ther are 2 companies that manufacture the carbon fiber that is used in the blades.
HXL and Zolt make over 80% of the market. HXL supplies the high end market for aero and medical thus they are higher priced. Zolt supplies the lower industrial grade product thus cheaper.
They both can service the middle tier quality applications and that is where the future lies. Energy generation from large wind turbines.
But there is a catch.
Britain wants to build 7,000 wind turbines off its shore. That’s one for every half-mile of shoreline. It would provide enough electricity for all of Britain’s homes. Is it possible? Yes, it is. But there are practical challenges. The supply of wind turbines already can’t keep up with demand. If carried out, Britain’s wind energy program could quickly overwhelm supply, pushing prices higher and no doubt leading to cost overruns.
Then there’s the matter of supplying the critical material for wind turbines. It’s carbon fiber. Some big carbon fiber manufacturers are supplying Boeing and Airbus with this super-strong lightweight material to build their new generation of jets.
But Britain should absolutely not tap into this supply. Aerospace-quality carbon fiber is pricey. Britain wants to use industry-grade, which is much cheaper.
The only problem is that industry-grade carbon fiber is dominated by small manufacturers. It would be a nightmare for Britain to parcel out the supply to a dozen manufacturers with different production schedules, quality standards, and customer support protocols.
There is, however, one manufacturer of industrial-grade carbon fiber that is rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity. Its name is Zoltek (ZOLT), and it’s really the only game in town. ZOLT really is the leader in this area of supply. It's a small cap special situation and has had a good run. Wait for a pull back and buyu it.
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