Rival Iraqi factions continue jockeying for power in post-Saddam Iraq. This situation has turned out to be far more complicated than most -- especially the Bush administration -- expected.

It explains why “the jihadists did not employ their signature tactic of using suicide bombers to strike the [Sunni’s al-Gailani] shrine. Using a truck bomb allows the jihadists to prevent any potential backlash from the Sunni community, which the jihadists do not want to alienate totally. The bombing also helps fuel the Shiite/Sunni sectarian fire by raising suspicions that Shiite militants potentially bombed the al-Gailani shrine in retaliation for the attacks on Shiite sacred sites.”

As long as rival Iraqi factions think they can establish a lasting democracy with car bombs and gun battles in the street, they have no reason to expect stability in Iraq. New twists on old sectarian grudges will continue to unfold under the current status quo. Violence begets violence. Fresh conflicts over oil revenues should be expected. The conflicting parties all know that U.S. political will to fight this war is waning and are acting to solidify their positions for a future with limited U.S. military presence.

The future of the Middle East is the same as the past, political turmoil, which will escalate and cause oil and gold and silver to keep on in a upward price pattern.

This will put pressure on the market eventually. The market does not like inflation. Oil will cause the next wave of inflation which will cause the price of gold and silver to take off for the second wave up.