Long Term Picture (1/17/08)

Think of History and what has happened in the markets. Today the fear of a bear market is as it was in any other bear market with problems financially flowing in the press all the time. First it was housing then the ripple to the mortgage and bank industry then to the consumers. All bad news.
After the storm there will be sunshine so what do you do during the bad times hunker down and wait.
I was predicting a top in the market in the year of 7's and it came to pass. A top on 10/31/07.
Now the markets have to digest the problems and get on with life. Wait and save your money to buy later.
The following is an excerpt from Jeff Clark who writes now about whether we are in a bear. A bear is measured from a peak to a bottom. The peak was and we are waiting for the bottom.

"Right now, investors would do well to play dead. Or better yet, avoid the market altogether.
Yes, there are plenty of bargains out there. Lots of good quality companies are trading at single-digit price/earnings ratios. Lots of debt-free stocks are trading just above the cash per share on their balance sheets.

But if we are entering a bear market – I am not yet convinced we are, but it is growing more likely – then cheap stocks will get cheaper. Investors should focus less on finding good, cheap stocks, and focus more on preserving capital.
I'm not suggesting that you can't find stocks that go up in a bear market. You can, and we will. But in the early stages of a bear attack, everything gets hit. Investors are better off playing dead until the bear tires out and wanders away.
Bear markets typically last between six and 18 months. Most of the damage, however, occurs early on. Exercising a little patience right now could be the difference between buying stocks on October 16, 1987 – the trading day before the big crash - and buying them on October 20." By Jeff Clark

I say the long term true bear started in Jan of 2000 and the first major bottom was in October of 2002. Everything else will be sideways until 2012 which will be another major bottom.
After 10/2/02 we have gone upward until 10/31/07. Five years of a Bull, that's a long Bull.
Now we are in a minor bear.


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