More on Oil (4/29/07)


Dr. Bakhtiari delves into the state of preparation of major nations and populations for what is about to ensue and concludes as follows:

“In the large majority of countries, no one has prepared (or wanted to prepare) the general public to the historical 'Peak Oil’ event and to its momentous consequence in their daily lives. Thus, most probably, the popular masses will be directly exposed to two main types of shock:

A material shock;
A psychological shock.
“Due to the benign decline gradient in crude oil production during the early 'Post Peak’ period -- only 3 mb/d over the first transition period spanning 2007-2010 -- the material shock will not pose insoluble problems and accommodation will prove possible with minimal gradual pain. Moreover, sizeable amounts of wastage in most developed societies will provide a welcome cushion for the initial cuts to be made.

“Not so for the psychological shock. This shock, in stark contrast, will be electric and abrupt. Stress, fear, depression, despairs, and nightmares will be the order of the day -- as people come to face the not-so-palatable facets of 'Post Peak.’ When confronted with this series of unknowns, with the trauma of change, people will try to protect themselves by automatically reverting to their past, to the known, to what they believe to be "real and true" -- in a word, to their reassuring 'roots'”


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