Mortgages and Housing Stocks (6/21/07)

The percentage of U.S. mortgages entering foreclosure is the highest in more than 50 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Friday.

The biggest jumps came in bubble states like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. But mortgage defaults were also high in states hit with the loss of manufacturing jobs -- Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

“It is tempting to call the bottom,” “But the nature of bubbles is that they reach ridiculously absurd heights that few thought possible. Then when the bubble deflates, things usually reach an absurd low that few thought possible. They also tend to take some time to unwind. It would be an odd historical anomaly to have a five- or six-year housing bull market and then have the thing unwind in a one-year bear market.

“This is going to take some time to play out. At least a few years, I’d say. Therefore, as a generalization, don’t be tempted by housing stocks or mortgage lenders just yet.”


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