Recession is coming. (1/16/07)
Statistics and the economy are great for mathimatical analysis.
I am reading analysis about the recessions that are coming.
By comparing interest rate spreads and the money supply, economic recessions occured after certain correlations were observed from the spreads of these data systems.
No false signals have been given by the 10-year bond minus the three-month T-Bill spread since 1970.
No false signals were given by a combination of real monetary base, M2 CPI adjusted, and the 10-year minus the FF rate spread .
Pretty heady stuff.
I can't print these charts but since 1970 every recession occurred after there was correlation to the above statements.
The charts are pointing to a recession in the near future - next 6 months.
Maybe you should protect yourself in some of your investments so they don't deteriorate with price.
Use stops like a 10% trailing stop from any high on some of your trading stocks.
Infaltion is here, the stock market doesn't like inflation.
The Feds want the $ to weaken to help exports. They have to fund the war and that's inflationary. They pay off the future with cheaper dollars.
This sounds like the 70's all over again.
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