Sell in May and Go Away (6/23/06)

Sell in May & Go Away. May through October is the ‘dead zone’ for stocks, with the vast majority of stock market gains coming in the November through May timeframe. This year proved to be perfect timing for this saying.
So what is going to happen from here?
Bull Side.
The market is in something of a no man’s land right now, having made the transition to bearish stance but with the possibility of a short term rebound still in the cards. Stodgy stocks appear to be the winning play (not to mention ongoing bearish positions), as long as only money managers in a hostile climate seek bulletproof places to stash their funds. Energy and metals stocks could provide an excellent buy point in the near future, but the verdict isn’t in and the timing says not yet. (continued)

Bear Watch.
It’s hard to separate the guilty from the innocent when the whole market gets beat with the ugly stick. Financial stocks continue to look ripe, big mortgage lenders in particular, and steel stocks may be coming to the end of their long run. Big cap technology stocks continue to look awful, and the modestly rebounding dollar could be hit over the head again soon to resume its cheery downward trend. I will feel more comfortable looking for new positions on the bearish side once we see some resolution.


Assigned to category: Stocks
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