Silver (8/11/07)
I have built a case for silver fundamentally over and over again in these pages.
Now I will look technically at the silver charts.
Silver and gold will run in tandem as the precious metals market continues to digest the inflationary undertones of oil and raw material demands by the expanding new consumer countries.
India is the largest consumer of gold and silver for jewelry in the world and as they become more affluent with income they will buy more for their future generations doweries. China also loves to buy gold because it is flush with US dollars. Before they revalue their currency they will use their US dollars to buy gold. Then they will revalue their currency and the $ will go down more thus causing the price of gold to go up. Then the general public of China will be able to buy gold cheaper with their currency and the public will buy a value.
So as gold goes so does silver.
Ratios of silver historically was 32 to one. Gold at $640 means silver should be at $20.
During the hunt brothers cornering attempt it was 16 to 1. Then it went to 100 to 1. Since the 100 to 1 it has been trending back towards the 32 to 1 slowly. Right now it is 51 to 1. If gold hits $1000 and silver gets tight industrially then the ratio goes to 32 to 1 silver will run to $34 an oz.
We have to visualize the scenario and alter ouor game plan as events unfold but if you aren't prepared for it you can't profit from it.
Now back to the technicals.
There was a 277% advance in 4 year and 5 months followed by a 38% collapse last May.
Just like gold the silver market between 6/14/06 and 2/26/07 rallied 56% in 8 months and 12 days. Since 1860 there has been 58 bear market rallies in silver. As of today this marks the longest time frame that could happen in a bear market rally. Therefore we must assume we are still in a long term bull in silver.
Buy silver, buy slv, buy silver stocks.
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