Silver - Bull or Bear (6/13/06)

I am writing this Monday morning and want to be prepared for the turnaround of silver.
Long term, next 4 years, I belive the silver market is in a major bull market. With that hypothesis I want to set my readers up for what is going to happen based on my hypothesis.
We are in a correction of the mega bull of metals. Silver's top 1497. Silvers bottom 401.
Today trading around 1097. If silver is in a fundamentally strong position the bottom will be 1080.
If the dollar continues to rise and the fed continues to tighten then financial fundamentals will cause the price to go to 950 and or 820.

The market needs to rest from the volitility it has experienced in the last 7 months therefore the market will trade in a penant formation for the next 4 to 6 months. Then it will break out to the upside later this year.
The least risk to buying this market is to buy physical silver on a scale down basis starting at 1080.
I do not perport to be a day trader for quick profits. I like to take a position for the long term and add to my positions on weakness.
Personally I believe in Ted Butlers analysis of the fundamentals of silver.
An additional thought is to look at copper. It broke through its all time high of 160 and peaked at 400.
That is a 250% increase. Platinum, Gold and Silver will each have their day. It looks like Platinum is next since it broke out of its all time high. Its target is 2500 or above. Gold's target is 2000.
Now comes the hard part silver was being manipulated in the 70's by the Hunt brothers therefore $50 was an aberation. With Silver's ratio of 32 to one historically, I predict that by the year 2010 Silver will hit $62.50 with the potential of going to $125 later. For whatever reasons the fundamentals of weaker currencies, (all currencies), modernization of the developing countries, more industrial use of silver that is not recoverable, and the lack of government owned silver causes the supply side to not meet the demand. Thus the case of higher silver prices for the long term.


Assigned to category: precious metals
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