Silver is it Being Manipulated? (10/19/07)

This is by Ted Butler who is very passionate about the silver situation.
This is a point of view that you need to be aware of because it could affect silver in the future.

The latest COT in silver showed little deterioration, with the market structure remaining in its best position in years, in stark contrast to gold. I get the feeling that the dealers intend to use an old trick, an engineered gold sell-off, to trigger a sympathetic sell-off in silver.

The buying by the big 4 in the latest reporting period caps a four week buying binge by the big concentrated shorts in which a record near 13,000 short contracts have been bought back. This has reduced the concentrated net short position by almost 25% since the COT report of August 14, to the lowest level of the year. At just under 40,000 contracts, or the equivalent of 200 million ounces, the COMEX silver net short position still towers over the concentrated short position of any other commodity, in terms of real world production. Still, the reduction is remarkable in its suddenness and extent.

I can’t help but view this hard COT data in terms of the recent attention I have placed on ScotiaMocatta. Clearly, there has been unusual short covering in the big 4 concentrated category. Something has motivated this short covering. It has been unique to silver and not gold. It runs contrary to the behavior of the big short(s) for almost a year. While I can’t state for sure that ScotiaMocatta has been responsible for this short covering, that conclusion is certainly consistent with my private and public campaign concerning them.

Assuming that my speculation is correct, and ScotiaMocatta is the big short and has decided to change its behavior, what does this mean for the future price of silver? For the long term, this would have to be considered bullish, because if the silver short side has lost a prime participant, the long-term silver manipulation will be undermined. In the short term, however, silver may face intentional volatility, as the big shorts look to buy back more contracts at prices that are advantageous to them, and decidedly disadvantageous to margin sellers under stress. This is manipulation in its purest form.

And let me be clear – either you view the silver market as manipulated or not, there’s no wishy-washy in between. It’s like being pregnant, you are or you are not. How any objective observer does not reach the conclusion that silver is a manipulated market is beyond me.

Since I am convinced that that the silver market is manipulated, I am also convinced that the manipulation is a criminal undertaking. I can’t make it any simpler than that.

It is understandable to become discouraged concerning short term price action. But it is important to understand that rarely does short term price action tell us the real story. The key is the long term and a reliance upon facts and common sense. My answer to explain the short term is the manipulation. That's not just an easy answer for everything, but a position that has developed over intense study for more than a quarter century. I sincerely believe that we are extremely close to silver breaking free to the upside, but it is entirely possible that we may get one more jarring jolt to the downside in reaction to a steep sell-off in gold. If that comes to fruition, it should be the last engineered sell-off in silver for a long time.



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