Stocks Bull or Bear (6/6/06)
As Talked about on CNBC
“The market is trading at 15X current earnings. The fed rate is at 5% - an historically low number. Rarely do you see the total of these 2 numbers at 20. What it suggests is that the market is relatively inexpensive.”
Conversely
The market's current P/E is about double its "normal" level basd on current earnings.
If you look at the price-book ratio on the S&P 500 at 3.1, it's also approximately double the historical norm of about 1.5. The price-dividend ratio on the S&P 500, at 34, is about double the historical norm of about 26. The price-revenue ratio on the S&P 500, at 1.5, is nearly double the historical norm of 0.8. This market is NOT "cheap."
From an economic perspective, corporate profits as a share of GDP are near an all-time high. Historically, a high profit share relative to GDP has generally been followed by disappointing earnings growth over the following five-year period.
If the fed keeps raising rates what does that do to corporate profits? It lowers them.
Therefore I'm going for the disappointing earnings picture for the future and a sideways to down market for the summer.
