Uranium Part III (2/15/07)

I have recomended USU in the past and it has moved up nicely. It has a considerable way to move yet, buy it on dips for accumulation for the next few years. You should double your money in 3 years on this pick.

Force #2: Crisis at Cigar Lake

Uranium prices were already climbing steadily when the nuclear power industry was rocked in October by disastrous news out of Cameco’s Cigar Lake Mine.

Cameco planned to bring Cigar Lake online in 2008, with 7 million pounds of uranium in the first year and full-scale production of 18 million pounds annually thereafter. Keep in mind, 18 million pounds is more than a tenth of last year's total global demand of 171 million pounds. That’s like the global oil market losing Saudi Arabia’s production!

In 2008, uranium demand was already expected to exceed supply by 25 million pounds. With Cigar Lake seriously delayed, that gap will be 32 million pounds. Put another way -- the shortfall in uranium is going to soar by 30% just in 2008.

Sure, Cigar Lake will be brought into production eventually. But meanwhile, demand keeps building up. Uranium consumers around the world can see this squeeze coming, so the race is on. That explains why spot uranium prices basically doubled in the course of a year, and the stocks of near-term uranium producers vaulted higher.

Cigar Lake could be a force driving uranium prices this year both UP and down.


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